April 19 , 2008

Telangana and CBN

With the advent of sub elections for 4 Lok Sabha and 12 Assembly seats declared by election commission, I think it is good time to discuss this issue coupled with CBN’s stand. These elections are very critically poised to decide the future of many important issues that AP is currently lingering over. They will also serve as a yard stick for next assembly and parliament elections.

These elections in May 2008 will be very critical for three important reasons.

1) They reflect the true pulse among Telangana people, do they really want Telangana or is it just a politically driven fiasco?
2) Congress party, which has audaciously stepped away from its promises coupled with allegations of heavy corruption.
3) Most importantly and above all, the future of CBN and Telugu Desam party.

CBN, has never said yes or no to Telangana issue. He didn’t get tempted like congress to make false promises about Telangana to gain vote bank. May be it is one of the reasons for his debacle in 2004. After the defeat it really doesn’t matter what ever he said until the next election time, which is now. I am really surprised that he never made any statement on Telangana yet. Sometimes I think he is really stupid to not make any comments about such big issue. But at the back of my mind I used to give credit to him that he stuck to his word whether he is in ruling or opposition. But, after a very careful analysis of the current scenario and how things are rolling out in AP, I couldn’t help but admire his political acumen, long sight and thoughtfulness. I won’t say it is because of his political ethics, as we all know ethics and politics never make a tandem. He is a shrewd politician and this discussion bases more on logistics of the game than emotions.

Let’s discuss what options he had at his hand.

1) Openly coming out and declaring that TDP will give out separate Telangana - This will give chance to people to think that he is an opportunist. Also, what is the guarantee that Telangana people would believe him after the treatment they received from Congress? So, it is not going to help him much to get the vote bank.
2) Openly declare that TDP is against to Telangana – this will definitely add oil to the fire and he runs big risk of loosing high cadre MLAs from his own party. Definitely party is going to loose vote bank of Telangana in this case.
3) Third and final option is just to keep quiet – which is exactly what he did and which is the best bet at this time, in my view. The whole issue of Telangana is between TRS and Congress. The moment Congress got full majority of its own, the same moment Telangana was dead in their minds. Congress snubbed TRS as everybody expected and TRS had no chance to protect it. So, during this whole ordeal, CBN remained a spectator and mentioned “it is an issue between those two parties and let them figure it out” - because it is indeed correct.

Now, you may argue that doesn’t he have a responsibility to a burning issue in the state? How can he be a spectator while so much drama is going on? There are some scenarios where it is better to shut up rather than speak. He displayed the famous English saying “a wise man knows what to speak but a smart one knows when to” to perfection.

Now let us see what could be the consequences of his stand on Telangana:

1) If there is really a movement among public (not the political leaders) to obtain separate state, then Congress is going to be wiped out as they ditched them in their face. This is a benefit for TDP.
2) If there is no real movement among public, and actually some of them think it is better to stay as a single state, then it is either TDP or congress. He is definitely a better option as he never said otherwise. In this case, the lack of trustworthiness of YSR can turn votes in his favor.

So, I think, he will be benefited in either of these scenarios. Having said all that, politics is a funny game and leaders change their mind overnight.

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